Northwestern Wildside

There is a misconception floating among some members of the press, and we want to make sure you have the facts: The Wildcats’ hard-fought overtime loss to No. 11 Michigan last night did NOT end their NCAA tournament hopes. A win certainly would have helped their resume, but even then, nothing was guaranteed. There’s still a lot of basketball left to be played.

The ‘Cats’ tournament hopes are only slightly worse today than the were a day ago. And (though we may be a little biased), we think the odds are still pretty darn good. See for yourself. Here are three ways for the ‘Cats to make the dance.

1. Finish 9-9 in Big Ten

NU is 6-9 in conference play with three games left: Saturday at Penn St.; Wednesday vs. Ohio St.; March 3 at Iowa. Most experts agree that a 9-9 conference record would virtually guarantee a Big Ten team a slot in the tournament. The Big Ten is the strongest conference in the nation this year and seems to be in line for seven or eight NCAA Tournament bids.

Most people, even before the Michigan game, had the ‘Cats route to 9-9 mapped out: Go 3-1 by beating Penn St. and Iowa, which NU has already done once this season, and winning one of our two homes games with top-25 teams. This is still possible.

But many seem to feel that the Michigan game was the one we needed to win — that, for some reason, beating Ohio State will be a lot tougher. Ohio State is a great team, and beating them will be tough. But no tougher than Michigan. It’s not necessarily true that Ohio State is better than Michigan. The Buckeyes are ranked No. 8 and the Wolverines are No. 11, so they’re comparable. Sports Illustrated has both teams on its list of eight teams with a legitimate chance to win it all. But Michigan just beat Ohio State this past weekend. One game doesn’t necessarily mean much, but the opinion that Ohio State is a lot better than Michigan — and would be a much tougher team to beat — comes from preseason expectations. Ohio State was considered a national title contender, Michigan was not. Now, in late February, that isn’t necessarily true. But people haven’t adjusted their expectations.

The other argument stems from Ohio State’s runaway victory over NU in December. That’s understandable, but it seems more likely that the lopsided score was the result of a chance meeting where Ohio State was on and Northwestern was off. Ohio State’s William Buford scored 28, nearly double his season average, and NU’s John Shurna, Drew Crawford and Reggie Hearn struggled all game.

While none of the three games — and especially Ohio State — is an easy win, the ‘Cats still have a legitimate chance to finish .500 in conference play and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.

2. ‘Cats finish 8-10 in Big Ten

Most media members seem to feel the ‘Cats will finish 8-10 in conference. While we disagree, there would be no shame in going 2-1 over the final three games in the nation’s best conference. Some writers believe that 8-10 and a win or two in the Big Ten tournament would be enough to get the ‘Cats in.

Finishing 8-10 would place the ‘Cats squarely on the bubble. The computer rankings have NU somewhere in the 40s and 50s, which is a little lower than we’d like. Their ranking would likely rise with two wins, though, and another quality win or two in the Big Ten tournament could put NU over the top.  The picture is murky and in this scenario would depend a lot on the fates of other bubble teams. But it’s clear that an 8-10 finish certainly wouldn’t eliminate the ‘Cats.

3. Win the Big Ten Tournament

The easiest scenario. Win the conference tournament and receive the automatic bid. Yes, it’s tough for any team, and NU’s path wouldn’t be the easiest. We’ve already beaten Michigan State and taken Michigan to overtime twice. Sounds to us like it’s still a possibility.

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John Shurna sat on the bench an hour before Saturday’s game with Minnesota, smiling uncomfortably as cameramen zoomed in on him. The player who tries to avoid individual attention was in the spotlight. When he returned to the floor, his shot had too much arc and didn’t look like his normal, effortless but unusual stroke.

Even when the game with Minnesota started, he still didn’t look comfortable. The Wildside’s Shurn-O-Meter hung unused for most of the first half as Shurna was hesitant. When he could have gone straight to the basket, he shot-faked and had his shot blocked. On another possession, he passed up an open three-pointer.

Then, with 3:33 left in the half, Shurna stole a pass with no one in front of him and scored his first two points. The relief he felt was evident: from his facial expression; from his emphatic dunk; and from the 10 points he poured in over the next two minutes. At halftime, he had 12, five away from Billy McKinney’s 35-year-old record, and the ‘Cats led 36-28.

Shurna inched closer with a layup four minutes into the second half, and he went to the free-throw line with 13:06 left in the game and the chance to tie the record. He hit the first but missed the second. In the end, it was fitting, though. He surpassed the record in one stroke.

The record-setting points came (also fittingly) on a three-pointer halfway through the second period. He dribbled left near the top of the key. Minnesota’s zone defense lost track of him for a second, and he drilled home a three from five feet behind the arc.

A timeout came seconds later, and the student section exploded. Huge John Shurna heads and #24 signs floated above the cheering crowd. Welsh-Ryan broke into a chant of “JOHNN-Y SHUR-NA” and stayed loud for the rest of the game.

The ‘Cats rode the noise to a 64-53 victory in a game they controlled throughout. Minnesota and Northwestern were both on the bubble, and the win could go a long way toward helping NU reach the NCAA Tournament. After the game, ESPN’s bracketologists projected NU as one of the final teams into the field, and Minnesota as one of the last ones out.

Dave Sobolewski started his campaign for another Big Ten Freshman of the Week award with his game-high 22 points. JerShon Cobb had four steals in his first start back from injury, and Drew Crawford added 11 points.

The ‘Cats host another crucial home game on Tuesday against Michigan. The Wolverines just knocked off Big Ten favorite Ohio State, and a win would improve NU’s postseason resume. At Michigan earlier this season, the ‘Cats fell in overtime. Let’s help them get over the top with another energetic turnout by the Wildside.

And, one more time, let’s congratulate John Shurna, the leading scorer in school history.

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